DNV models 20,000 years of weather and power outputs for ...

DNV models 20,000 years of weather and power outputs for ISO New England to support energy reliability studies. New England ISO weather ... Published: 22March2021 Author: BethanyGenier BethanyGenier RegionalCommunicationsManager,NorthAmerica Phone:+17813937000 [email protected] Contact: ChristopherHayes ChristopherHayes SeniorMeteorologist Phone:+1-503-222-5590 [email protected] Contactus: ChristopherHayes SeniorMeteorologist Sendemail Contactus: ChristopherHayes SeniorMeteorologist Sendemail Theanalysisassessesthereliabilityofvariableenergyresourcesduringextremeweatherevents. SHARE: OAKLAND,California,US,15March2021– DNV,theindependentenergyexpertandassuranceprovidergeneratedandanalyzed20,000yearsofplausibleweatherandpowerproductionforISONewEngland(ISO-NE).Withthecompletionofthisproject,whichbeganattheendof2019,ISO-NEcannowunderstandthemagnitude,frequencyanddurationofeventslikecoldsnapsorheatwaveswhichdriveregionalload,aswellastheircorrelationtowindandsolarlullsastheypertaintocurrentandfuturevariableenergyresourceslikewindandsolarenergyplants.Climatechangeisincreasingtheriskandfrequencyofrareorextremeweathereventsanddisruptionstothestabilityoftheelectricalgrid.AmplifyingtheneedforriskanalysisandforecastingfortheseeventsisthesignificantgrowthofoffshorewindontheEastCoastoftheUnitedStatesanditsimpactongridoperationsduetovariableanduncertainweatherpatterns.NewEnglandisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasetheamountofelectricitygeneratedbyoffshorewindinthenextdecade,aswellascontinuingtodevelopothervariableenergyresources(VER)likesolarandonshorewind.Theanalysisassessesthereliabilityofvariableenergyresourcesduringextremeweathereventssuchasextended-durationcoldsnapsandheatwavesorwindandsolargenerationlulls.ItincludedtheprobabilityofthesetypesofeventsaswellastheassociatedsystemelectricloadanditscorrelationacrosstheregionalLoadZones.“Stochastictimeseriesmodellingprovidesthefullspectrumofpossibleweatherconditionsthatdriveorlimitsolarandwindpowerproduction,alongwiththecoincidentsystemandregionalload,”saidRichardS.Barnes,regionpresident,EnergySystemsNorthAmericaatDNV.“Creatingscenariosthatproducemanydifferenttypesofrealisticandprobablecircumstancesenablessystemoperators,utilitiesandotherstakeholderstoplanforandmitigateextremeeventsandprotectsagainstcatastrophicfailureslikewehaverecentlyseen.”Toperformthisanalysis,DNVapplieditsStochasticEnginetool,whichwasdevelopedtotackletime-series-basedstatisticalproblemsatscale.TheStochasticEngineresamplesanytimeseries(windspeed,irradiance,price,load)intoparallel,plausiblescenariosthatpreservealltemporalandco-variabilityrelationshipswithinthedata.Themodelsimulatesexpectedpowerproductionduringeachweatherscenario,creatingatleast20,000years’worthofhourlytimeseriesofweatherandpoweroutputsforwindandsolarinstallationsaswellaselectricalsystemload–oralternaterealitiesthataccuratelyreflectthefullrangeofclimateandweathervariabilityofaspecificregion,inthiscaseNewEngland.Thisprojectisoneofthemostcomprehensivevariabilityassessmentsthathasbeenperformed,focusingnotonlyononshoreandoffshorewindandregionalsolargenerationduringweathereventsbutalsoonthepowerdemandassociatedwiththeseevents.AboutDNV  DNVistheindependentexpertinriskmanagementand assurance,operatinginmorethan100countries.ThroughitsbroadexperienceanddeepexpertiseDNVadvancessafetyandsustainableperformance,setsindustrybenchmarks,andinspiresandinventssolutions.Whetherassessinganewshipdesign,optimizingtheperformanceofawindfarm,analyzingsensordatafromagas pipeline orcertifyingafoodcompany’ssupplychain,DNVenablesitscustomersandtheirstakeholderstomakecriticaldecisionswithconfidence.Drivenbyitspurpose,tosafeguardlife,property,andtheenvironment,DNVhelpstacklethechallengesandglobaltransformationsfacingitscustomersandtheworldtodayandisatrustedvoiceformanyoftheworld’smostsuccessfulandforward-thinkingcompanies.Intheenergyindustry DNVprovidesassurancetotheentireenergyvaluechainthroughitsadvisory, monitoring,verification,andcertificationservices. Astheworld'sleadingresourceofindependentenergyexpertsandtechnicaladvisors,theassuranceproviderhelps industriesandgovernmentsto navigatethemanycomplex,interrelatedtransitionstakingplacegloballyandregionally,intheenergyindustry.DNViscommittedtorealizingthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,andsupportscustomerstotransitionfastertoadeeplydecarbonizedenergysystem.Learnmoreatwww.dnv.com. Published: 22March2021 Author: BethanyGenier BethanyGenier RegionalCommunicationsManager,NorthAmerica Phone:+17813937000 [email protected] Contact: ChristopherHayes ChristopherHayes SeniorMeteorologist Phone:+1-503-222-5590 [email protected] Contactus: ChristopherHayes SeniorMeteorologist Sendemail Contactus: ChristopherHayes SeniorMeteorologist Sendemail