Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the impact of terrorism

This is the eighth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and ... Skiptomaincontent Attachments Downloaddocument(PDF|20.02MB) ExecutiveSummary ThisistheeightheditionoftheGlobalTerrorismIndex(GTI).Thereportprovidesacomprehensivesummaryofthekeyglobaltrendsandpatternsinterrorismoverthelast50years,placingaspecialemphasisontrendsoverthepastdecade.ThisperiodcorrespondswiththeriseandfalloftheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL). TheGTIreportisproducedbytheInstituteforEconomics&Peace(IEP)usingdatafromtheGlobalTerrorismDatabase(GTD)andothersources.DatafortheGTDiscollectedandcollatedbytheNationalConsortiumfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)attheUniversityofMaryland.TheGTDcontainsover170,000terroristincidentsfortheperiod1970to2019. In2019,deathsfromterrorismfellforthefifthconsecutiveyear,afterpeakingin2014.Thetotalnumberofdeathsfellby15.5percentto13,826.Thefallindeathswasmirroredbyareductionintheimpactofterrorism,with103countriesrecordinganimprovementontheirGTIscore,comparedto35thatrecordedadeterioration.ThefullGTIscoretakesintoaccountnotonlydeaths,butalsoincidents,injuries,andpropertydamagefromterrorism,overafive-yearperiod. ThelargestfallintheimpactofterrorismoccurredinAfghanistan,whichrecorded1,654fewerdeathsfromterrorismin2018,a22.4percentdecreasefromtheprioryear. However,Afghanistanremainsthecountrymostimpactedbyterrorism,afterovertakingIraqin2018. Nigeriarecordedthesecondlargestreductionindeathsfromterrorismin2019,withthenumberfallingfrom2,043to1,245,a39.1percentreduction,whichwasmainlyduetoafallinterrorismdeathsattributedtoFulaniextremists.ThisreductionoccurreddespiteasmallincreaseindeathsattributedtoBokoHaram,whichhasthebeenthemostactiveterroristgroupinthecountryoverthepastdecade.DeathsfromterrorisminNigeriaarenow83percentlowerthanattheirpeakin2014. Conflictremainstheprimarydriverofterrorism,withover96percentofdeathsfromterrorismin2019occurringincountriesalreadyinconflict.Thetencountrieswiththehighestimpactofterrorismareallengagedinatleastonearmedconflict. Despitetheoverallfallintheimpactofterrorismacrosstheworld,itremainsasignificantandseriousprobleminmanycountries.Therewere63countriesin2019thatrecordedatleastonedeathfromaterroristattackandseventeencountriesthatrecordedover100deathsfromterrorism. However,onlyAfghanistanandNigeriarecordedover1,000deathsandbothcountrieshadsignificantreductionsinthenumberofpeoplekilledin2019.Bycontrast,in2015thereweresixcountriesthatrecordedoverathousanddeathsfromterrorism. ISIL’sstrengthandinfluencecontinuedtodecline,withdeathsattributedtothegroupin2019fallingto942,downfrom1,571inthepreviousyear.Thisisthefirsttimesincethegroupbecameactivein2013,thatitwasresponsibleforlessthanathousanddeathsfromterrorisminanyoneyear.Thenumberofterroristattacksattributedtothegroupalsofelltothelowestlevelsinceitwasformed,with339incidentsattributedtothegroupin2019.However,despitethedecreaseinactivityfromISILintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,ISIL’saffiliategroupsremainactiveacrosstheworld,andhavebecomeespeciallyprominentinsub-SaharanAfricawheredeathsattributedtoISILaffiliatesincreased.Twenty-sevencountriesexperiencedaterroristattackcausedbyISILoroneofitsaffiliates. TheexpansionofISILaffiliatesintosub-SaharanAfricaledtoasurgeinterrorisminmanycountriesintheregion.Sevenofthetencountrieswiththelargestincreaseinterrorismwereinsub-SaharanAfrica:BurkinaFaso,Mozambique,DemocraticRepublicofCongo(DRC),Mali,Niger,CameronandEthiopia.Thesecountriesarealsofacingvariousecologicalthreats,areamongstthecountrieswiththehighestpopulationgrowthandsufferfromlowsocietalresilience. ThelargestincreaseindeathsfromterrorismoccurredinBurkinaFaso,wheredeathsrosefrom86to593,a590percentincrease.Therisewasmainlydrivenbythreegroups:theIslamicStateinGreaterSahara(ISGS),JamaatNusratal-IslamwalMuslimin(JNIM)andtheBurkinaFasobranchofAnsaralIslam. SriLankarecordedthesecondlargestincreasein2019,withtheEasterSundaybombingsaccountingfortheentiretyofthisincrease.SriLankarecordedthedeadliestattackof2019wheneightcoordinatedsuicideattacksacrossthecountrytargetedchurchesandhotelsonEasterSunday,killing266peopleandinjuringatleast500.ISILclaimedresponsibilityfortheattack,withtheperpetratorspledgingallegiancetoformerISIL-leaderAbuBakral-Baghdadionline. SouthAsiaremainstheregionmostimpactedbyterrorismin2019,despitetheimprovementsinAfghanistan,PakistanandIndia.ThisisthesecondyearinarowthatSouthAsiahasrecordedmoredeathsfromterrorismthananyotherregion. ISIL’sshifttosub-SaharanAfricameantthattheregionrecordedthesecondhighestnumberofterrorismdeaths,evenafteraccountingforthesubstantialfallinNigeria.DeathsattributedtoISILaffiliatesintheregionwererecordedasfarsouthasMozambiqueand41percentofallISIL-relatedattacksin2019occurredinsub-SaharanAfrica. Terrorismcomeswithaheavyfinancialcost.TheglobaleconomicimpactofterrorismwasUS$26.4billionin2019,25percentlowerthanin2018.Whilstthisfigureisasmallpercentageofthetotalimpactofviolenceontheglobaleconomy,itshouldbenotedthatthefiguresforterrorismarehighlyconservativeastheydonotaccountformanyitems,includingtheindirectimpactsonbusinessandinvestment,insurancecosts,lostopportunityandthecostsassociatedwithsecurityagenciesincounteringterrorism. Oneofthemoreworryingtrendsinthelastfiveyearsisthesurgeinfar-rightpoliticalterrorism,eventhoughtheabsolutenumberoffar-rightattacksremainslowwhencomparedtootherformsofterrorism.InNorthAmerica,WesternEurope,andOceania,far-rightattackshaveincreasedby250percentsince2014,withdeathsincreasingby709percentoverthesameperiod.Therewere89deathsattributedtofar-rightterroristsin2019,with51ofthoseoccurringintheChristchurchmosqueattacksinNewZealand.Therehavebeenover35far-rightterroristincidentsintheWesteveryyearforthepastfiveyears. Far-rightterrorismtendstobemorelethalthanfar-leftterrorism,butnotaslethalasIslamistterrorismintheWest. Therehavebeen13far-rightterroristattacksthathaveeachkilledmorethantenpeopleoverthepast50years,comparedto24Islamistattacks,andthreefromotherideologies.Far-rightterrorismisalsomorelikelytobecarriedoutbyindividualsunaffiliatedwithaspecificterroristgroup.Nearly60percentoffar-rightattacksfrom1970to2019werecarriedoutbyunaffiliatedindividuals,comparedtoundertenpercentforbothfar-leftandseparatistterroristgroups. Therearesomesignsthatpoliticalviolenceisbecomingmorepublicallyacceptable,asthelevelofpolarisationinsocietycontinuestorise.IntheUS,wherethemajorityoffar-rightterrorismhastakenplace,nearly40percentofbothDemocratandRepublicanpollrespondentsin2020feltthatviolenceforpoliticalendswasatleastpartiallyjustifiable,upfromlessthantenpercentjusttwoandhalfyearsearlier.SocialandpoliticalinstabilityhasalsobeenontheriseintheWest,evenpriortothewidespreaddemonstrationsseenin2020.Nearly70violentdemonstrationswererecordedintheWestin2019,comparedto19in2011. Theriseinfar-rightterrorismcomesatatimewhenPositivePeaceisdeclininginmanyWesterncountries.TheUShadoneofthelargestdeteriorationsinPositivePeace,withitsscoredeterioratingby6.7percentoverthepastdecade.IfthedeteriorationinPositivePeaceintheWestcontinuesuncheckedoverthecomingyears,thebackgroundconditionsaresetforfurthersocialdiscontent,whichmayincreasethelikelihoodforviolenceandterrorism. Thereportalsolooksattheapplicationofsystemsthinkingtoterrorism,usingmainlystatisticaltechniquesandmathematicalmodelstobetterunderstandthedynamicsofterrorismanditssubsequentimpactonsociety.Terroristgroupsflourishwhentheycanincreasetheirinfluence.Themajordriversofinfluencearemediacoverage,recruitmentofsympathisers,andfinances.Allofthesedifferentfacetsneedtobetackledtogethertobreakupterroristorganisations. Therearemanysocio-economicfactorsthatareassociatedwithterrorismthatarecommontoallcountries.However,therearealsonotabledifferencesbetweeneconomicallydevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Somesocio-economicfactorsassociatedwithterrorisminclude: Highlevelsofgroupgrievanceandaweakruleoflawiscorrelatedwithterrorismacrossallcountries. Inthemoreeconomicallydevelopedcountries,socialdisenfranchisementandexclusionplayanimportantroleinterrorism. Inlesseconomicallydevelopedcountries,religiousorethnicruptures,andcorruptionaremorestronglyassociatedwithhighlevelsofterrorism. Asthethreatofterrorismcontinuestochange,policymakersneedtobeawareofnovelapproachestocounter-terrorism.TheEuropeanLeadershipNetworkisdevelopingtheconceptofsocialimpactbondsinrelationtoterrorism,withaparticularfocusonsecuringdangerousmaterialsthatcouldbeusedinsophisticatedterroristattacks,suchasradioactivemedicalwaste.Therearealreadyover100developmentorsocialimpactbondsglobally,buttodatetheyhavenotbeenusedforsecuritypurposes.AnexpertcontributioninthiseditionoftheGTIlooksindetailattheprospectofusingsocialimpactbondsincounter-terrorism RelatedContent