Here Are The Dates For The Remaining 2022 Fed Rate ...

Skipping an August meeting, having met in late July, the Fed's next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. At that ... BETAThisisaBETAexperience.Youmayopt-outby clickinghereMoreFromForbesAug27,2022,03:35pmEDTTheRiseAndFallOfCrazyEddie:ATaleOfEpicFraudAug27,2022,02:49pmEDTKingDollar?HowTheU.S’sMightyGreenback’sCouldRoarAug27,2022,02:20pmEDTChinaSuffersAnotherDismalMonthOfSteelProductionAug27,2022,08:45amEDTThisUnlovedFundIsGushingDividends(WeCanBuyFor2020Prices)Aug27,2022,08:00amEDTRecessionWatch:FearsReturnAsFedWarnsAmericansOf'SomePain'AsEconomyBracesForMoreJobCutsAug26,2022,04:28pmEDTChaseColeman'sTigerGlobalCarvesUpTopTech,RetailHoldingsAug26,2022,04:01pmEDTDowPlunges1,000PointsAfterFedChairPowellWarnsInflationRequires‘Restrictive’PolicyFor‘SomeTime’Aug26,2022,02:43pmEDTBuyWritePullsDividendsAndOptionsPremiumThroughThePipelineEditStoryInvestingHereAreTheDatesForTheRemaining2022FedRateDecisions,AndWhatTheMarketExpectsFromThemSimonMooreSeniorContributorOpinionsexpressedbyForbesContributorsaretheirown.Ishowyouhowtosaveandinvest.New! Followthisauthortostaynotifiedabouttheirlateststories. Gotit!Jul27,2022,02:53pmEDT|New! Clickontheconversationbubbletojointheconversation Gotit!SharetoFacebookSharetoTwitterSharetoLinkedin JeromePowell,chairmanoftheUSFederalReserve,listensduringaHouseFinancialServices...[+]CommitteehearinginWashington,D.C.,U.S.,onThursday,June23,2022.PowellgavehismostexplicitacknowledgmenttodatethatsteepratehikescouldtiptheUSeconomyintorecession,sayingoneispossibleandcallingasoftlanding"verychallenging."Photographer:EricLee/Bloomberg ©2022BloombergFinanceLP TodaytheFedraisedrates0.75%asbroadlyexpectedinaconsensusdecision,backingawayfroma1%risethatwasanoutsidepossibility.Withthreeremainingmeetingsonthecalendarfor2022,here’swhatthemarketcurrentlyexpects. Ofcourse,theFedcanalwaysmoveratesoutsideofitsscheduledmeetings,thoughthat’softenonlydonewhentheeconomicnewsisextreme. September21FedMeeting SkippinganAugustmeeting,havingmetinlateJuly,theFed’snextscheduledmonetarypolicymeetingtakesplaceonSeptember20-21.Atthatpoint,wewillhavemoredataonhowinflationistrendingandhowthejobsmarketsandoveralleconomyislooking.TheFedwouldhopetoseeinflationsoften,andthejobmarketholdup.Ofcourse,thatmaynothappen. Marketexpectationsarecurrentlybroadlysplitbetweena50bpsand75bpshike,withanoutsidechanceofa100bpsmove.Ifinflationtrendshigherfromitscurrent9%levelandthejobmarketremainsrobust,thena75bpsmove,orgreater,ismorelikely. However,ifsignsofrecessionmountandinflationtrendsdown,thentheFedmaymoderateanyincrease.However,currentlythequestionforthismeetingisthesizeofaratehike,ratherthanthedirectiontheFedwillmovein.ThismeetingwillalsoseesomegreaterdisclosurefromtheFedincludingthelatesteconomicprojectionsasoccursateveryotherFedmeeting. MOREFROMFORBESADVISORBestTravelInsuranceCompaniesByAmyDaniseEditorBestCovid-19TravelInsurancePlansByAmyDaniseEditor November2FedMeeting ThentheFedplanstoskipthemonthofOctoberbeforesettingratesinearlyNovember.Hereaswemovefurtherout,thedecisionisalittlemoreuncertain,thoughsimilartotheSeptembermeetinga50bpsor75bpshikeappearthemostlikelyoutcomes,basedonmarketfutures. Shouldthatoccur,thisisthemeetingthatwouldtakeshort-termratesoverthesymbolicallyimportantlylevelof3%whichcouldwellpushtheyieldcurveintodeeperintoinversion-animportantrecessionsignal.However,theactualinversionwouldlikelyoccurintheleaduptothemeetingasshortertermratesfactorinalikelyratemove,andassumenobigshiftatthelongerendoftheyieldcurve. The3%levelwouldalsobesignificant,inputtingratesbacktowheretheyweremorethanadecadeagobackin2008,sinceimmediatelybeforethepandemic,ratesneverquitehitthe3%level.HencetheperiodofeasymoneythathaspersistedinAmericaformanyyearsmayappeartobeoveriftheNovembermeetinggoesasplanned. December14FedMeeting Thenthelastscheduledmeetingoftheyearinmid-Decemberisexpectedtoseeasmallerhike.ThemarketseessomechancethateitherinflationassoftenedortheeconomyhasweakenedsufficientlybyDecemberthattheFedholdsratessteadyatthismeeting. However,themostlikelymoveinthemarket’sviewisperhapsa25bpsmoveupinrates.ThisiswherethemarketsbelievethatrecessionrisksmaypreventtheFedfrommovingtoostronglyagainstinflation.Or,inamoreoptimisticinterpretation,maybeinflationwillbetrendinglowerwithouttoomucheconomicweakness,thoughtthatseemslessprobable. LookingAheadTo2023 However,2023iswhereitreallygetsinteresting.ThisisfarenoughoutthattheFedwillhavehadtimetoadjusttosignificanteconomicdatabetweennowandthenwiththefirst2023ratedecisionslatedforFebruary1. ThereisachancethattheFedremainsonitspathofraisingratesbythismeeting.However,themarketseesthechanceofthatasfairlysmall,bothintermsofthechanceofahikeanditssize,whichcouldbearoundthemoretypical25bpsmovestheFedhasmadehistorically. Themarketseemstobelievethatratesarelikelytoholdsteadyatthismeeting,withabalanceofrisksbetweeninflationcontinuingtobeaconcernandtheeconomicenvironmentmovingcloserto,orpossiblywellinto,arecession. SoasansummaryoftheFed’slikelymoves,SeptembermayseemoreofthesamefromtheFed,withperhapsanotherverylarge75bps‘inflationbusting’moveupinrates.However,asmallerincreaseinNovemberisthenexpected,andbyDecemberandinto2023themarketseessomechancethattheFediseitherholdingratessteadyorjustmaking25bpsmovesupinrates. Ofcourse,thisisessentiallyamirrortotheeconomicdatathemarketexpects.Themarketseesinflationmoderating,thoughmaybenotasmuchastheFedwouldlike,butarealriskofrecessiononthehorizon. BytheendofthisyearandintonextthemarketisbettingthatrecessionaryfearswillbegintooffsettheFed’sinflation-fightingenergy.However,thereisstillagreatdealofeconomicdatatocomebetweennowandthen,withthethreekeymetricstowatchbeinginflation,thejobmarketandeconomicgrowth.Themarketseesarecessionaslikely,butbelievetheFedwillstillmoverateshigherthanwe’veseeninoveradecadeduringtheremainderof2022. Followmeon Twitter or LinkedIn. SimonMooreEditorialStandardsPrintReprints&Permissions