U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (July 26-27, 2022) - TD Economics
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The minutes from the July 26-27, 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that curtailing inflation remains of paramount ... Canada US Global Français Togglenavigation Forecasts FinancialMarkets Economy Commentaries GovernmentFinance&Policy Labor RealEstate Consumer Trade BusinessInvestment State&LocalAnalysis Commodities&Industry ESG Media Search U.S.FOMCMeetingMinutes(July26-27,2022) BrettSaldarelli,Economist|416-542-0072 DatePublished:August17,2022 Category: U.S. DataCommentary FinancialMarkets Sharethis: Fedminutesshowedcontinuedcommitmenttobringinginflationbacktotarget TheminutesfromtheJuly26-27,2022FederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)meetingshowedthatcurtailinginflationremainsofparamountimportancetotheFed. Ontheprogressionoftheeconomy,theCommitteemembersnotedthat"recentindicatorsofspendingandproductionhadsoftened.Nonetheless,jobgainshadbeenrobustinrecentmonths,andtheunemploymentratehadremainedlow.Inflationremainedelevated,reflectingsupplyanddemandimbalancesrelatedtothepandemic,higherfoodandenergyprices,andbroaderpricepressures." TheCommitteealsostatedthat"inflationremainedunacceptablyhighandwaswellabovetheCommittee’slongerrungoalof2percent."Additionally,participantsnotedthatincreasesininflationwerebroadbasedandthattheyhaveseenlittleevidencethatinflationhasbeguntoabate. MembersoftheCommitteestatedthat"thewarandrelatedeventswerecreatingadditionalupwardpressureoninflationandwereweighingonglobaleconomicactivity." Committeemembersanticipatedthat"ongoingincreasesinthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsratewouldbeappropriatetoachievetheCommittee’sobjectives."Nevertheless,thepaceandextentoffuturepolicytighteningwoulddependontheprevailingmacroeconomicbackdrop. ForthefirsttimeFOMCmembersacknowledgedthat"theconstantlychangingnatureoftheeconomicenvironmentandtheexistenceoflongandvariablelagsinmonetarypolicy’seffectontheeconomy,therewasalsoariskthattheCommitteecouldtightenthestanceofpolicybymorethannecessarytorestorepricestability." KeyImplications Theminutesconfirmedthatre-establishingpricestabilityremainstheprincipalobjectiveoftheFed.TheuncertaintysurroundingtheRussia-Ukraineconflictwillonlyaddtotheupsiderisk.Additionally,thelabormarkethascontinuedtostrengthen,withemploymenthavingsurpassedpre-pandemiclevelsandtheunemploymentrateonparwithitsFebruary2020level.TheFedalsoacknowledgedthattheirtaskishighlyuncertain,andthereisariskthatitcouldtightenratesby"morethannecessary". Marketshavebeenworriedaboutexactlythatrisk.Recessionfearshavecontinuedtomount,withsomesurveysshowingthattheprobabilityofarecessionwithinthenext12-monthshasincreasedto50%.ThesefearshavealsobeenreflectedinthespreadbetweentheU.S.10-yearand2-yeartreasuryyields,whichremainsinnegativeterritory.WeexpecttheFedwillcontinuetoraiseratesthisyear,beforetakingapausetomonitortheimpactsofitsactionsoneconomicactivityandinflation. Disclaimer ThisreportisprovidedbyTDEconomics.Itisforinformationalandeducationalpurposesonlyasofthedateofwriting,andmaynotbeappropriateforotherpurposes.Theviewsandopinionsexpressedmaychangeatanytimebasedonmarketorotherconditionsandmaynotcometopass.Thismaterialisnotintendedtoberelieduponasinvestmentadviceorrecommendations,doesnotconstituteasolicitationtobuyorsellsecuritiesandshouldnotbeconsideredspecificlegal,investmentortaxadvice.ThereportdoesnotprovidematerialinformationaboutthebusinessandaffairsofTDBankGroupandthemembersofTDEconomicsarenotspokespersonsforTDBankGroupwithrespecttoitsbusinessandaffairs.Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthasbeendrawnfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butisnotguaranteedtobeaccurateorcomplete.Thisreportcontainseconomicanalysisandviews,includingaboutfutureeconomicandfinancialmarketsperformance.Thesearebasedoncertainassumptionsandotherfactors,andaresubjecttoinherentrisksanduncertainties.Theactualoutcomemaybemateriallydifferent.TheToronto-DominionBankanditsaffiliatesandrelatedentitiesthatcomprisetheTDBankGrouparenotliableforanyerrorsoromissionsintheinformation,analysisorviewscontainedinthisreport,orforanylossordamagesuffered.
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