Global Terrorism Index 2020 Summary & Findings - Vision of ...

The Global Terrorism Index is a comprehensive study analysing the impact of terrorism for 163 countries covering 99.7 per cent of the world's population. CONFLICT GlobalTerrorismIndex2020SummaryandKeyFindings ThisisanexcerptfromtheGlobalTerrorismIndex2020,whichisacomprehensivestudyanalysingtheimpactofterrorismfor163countriescovering99.7percentoftheworld’spopulation. ExecutiveSummary ThisistheeightheditionoftheGlobalTerrorismIndex(GTI).Thereportprovidesacomprehensivesummaryofthekeyglobaltrendsandpatternsinterrorismoverthelast50years,placingaspecialemphasisontrendsoverthepastdecade.ThisperiodcorrespondswiththeriseandfalloftheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL). Downloadthefullreporthere. TheGTIreportisproducedbytheInstituteforEconomics&Peace(IEP)usingdatafromtheGlobalTerrorismDatabase(GTD)andothersources.DatafortheGTDiscollectedandcollatedbytheNationalConsortiumfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)attheUniversityofMaryland.TheGTDcontainsover170,000terroristincidentsfortheperiod1970to2019. In2019,deathsfromterrorismfellforthefifthconsecutiveyear,afterpeakingin2014.Thetotalnumberofdeathsfellby15.5percentto13,826.Thefallindeathswasmirrored byareductionintheimpactofterrorism,with103countriesrecordinganimprovementontheirGTIscore,comparedto35thatrecordedadeterioration.ThefullGTIscoretakesintoaccountnotonlydeaths,butalsoincidents,injuries,andpropertydamagefromterrorism,overafive-yearperiod. ThelargestfallintheimpactofterrorismoccurredinAfghanistan,whichrecorded1,654fewerdeathsfromterrorismin2018,a22.4percentdecreasefromtheprioryear.However,Afghanistanremainsthecountrymostimpactedbyterrorism,afterovertakingIraqin2018. Nigeriarecordedthesecondlargestreductionindeaths fromterrorismin2019,withthenumberfallingfrom2,043 to1,245,a39.1percentreduction,whichwasmainlydue toafallinterrorismdeathsattributedtoFulaniextremists.ThisreductionoccurreddespiteasmallincreaseindeathsattributedtoBokoHaram,whichhasthebeenthemostactiveterroristgroupinthecountryoverthepastdecade.DeathsfromterrorisminNigeriaarenow83percentlowerthanattheirpeakin2014. Conflictremainstheprimarydriverofterrorism,withover96percentofdeathsfromterrorismin2019occurringincountriesalreadyinconflict.Thetencountrieswiththehighestimpactofterrorismareallengagedinatleastonearmedconflict. Despitetheoverallfallintheimpactofterrorismacrosstheworld,itremainsasignificantandseriousprobleminmanycountries.Therewere63countriesin2019thatrecorded atleastonedeathfromaterroristattackandseventeencountriesthatrecordedover100deathsfromterrorism.However,onlyAfghanistanandNigeriarecordedover1,000deathsandbothcountrieshadsignificantreductionsinthenumberofpeoplekilledin2019.Bycontrast,in2015thereweresixcountriesthatrecordedoverathousanddeathsfromterrorism. ISIL’sstrengthandinfluencecontinuedtodecline,withdeathsattributedtothegroupin2019fallingto942,downfrom 1,571inthepreviousyear.Thisisthefirsttimesincethegroupbecameactivein2013,thatitwasresponsibleforlessthanathousanddeathsfromterrorisminanyoneyear.Thenumberofterroristattacksattributedtothegroupalsofelltothelowestlevelsinceitwasformed,with339incidentsattributedtothegroupin2019.However,despitethedecreaseinactivityfromISILintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,ISIL’saffiliategroupsremainactiveacrosstheworld,andhavebecomeespeciallyprominentinsub-SaharanAfricawheredeathsattributedtoISILaffiliatesincreased.Twenty-sevencountriesexperiencedaterroristattackcausedbyISILoroneofitsaffiliates. TheexpansionofISILaffiliatesintosub-SaharanAfricaledto asurgeinterrorisminmanycountriesintheregion.Sevenofthetencountrieswiththelargestincreaseinterrorismwere insub-SaharanAfrica:BurkinaFaso,Mozambique,DemocraticRepublicofCongo(DRC),Mali,Niger,CameronandEthiopia.Thesecountriesarealsofacingvariousecologicalthreats,areamongstthecountrieswiththehighestpopulationgrowthandsufferfromlowsocietalresilience. ThelargestincreaseindeathsfromterrorismoccurredinBurkinaFaso,wheredeathsrosefrom86to593,a590percentincrease.Therisewasmainlydrivenbythreegroups:theIslamicStateinGreaterSahara(ISGS),JamaatNusratal-IslamwalMuslimin(JNIM)andtheBurkinaFasobranchofAnsaral-Islam. SriLankarecordedthesecondlargestincreasein2019,withtheEasterSundaybombingsaccountingfortheentiretyofthisincrease.SriLankarecordedthedeadliestattackof2019wheneightcoordinatedsuicideattacksacrossthecountrytargetedchurchesandhotelsonEasterSunday,killing266peopleandinjuringatleast500.ISILclaimedresponsibilityfortheattack,withtheperpetratorspledgingallegiancetoformerISIL-leaderAbuBakral-Baghdadionline. SouthAsiaremainstheregionmostimpactedbyterrorism in2019,despitetheimprovementsinAfghanistan,PakistanandIndia.ThisisthesecondyearinarowthatSouthAsiahasrecordedmoredeathsfromterrorismthananyotherregion. ISIL’sshifttosub-SaharanAfricameantthattheregionrecordedthesecondhighestnumberofterrorismdeaths, evenafteraccountingforthesubstantialfallinNigeria.DeathsattributedtoISILaffiliatesintheregionwererecordedasfarsouthasMozambiqueand41percentofallISIL-relatedattacksin2019occurredinsub-SaharanAfrica. Terrorismcomeswithaheavyfinancialcost.TheglobaleconomicimpactofterrorismwasUS$26.4billionin2019,25percentlowerthanin2018.Whilstthisfigureisasmall percentageofthetotalimpactofviolenceontheglobaleconomy,itshouldbenotedthatthefiguresforterrorismarehighlyconservativeastheydonotaccountformanyitems,includingtheindirectimpactsonbusinessandinvestment,insurancecosts,lostopportunityandthecostsassociatedwithsecurityagenciesincounteringterrorism. Oneofthemoreworryingtrendsinthelastfiveyearsisthesurgeinfar-rightpoliticalterrorism,eventhoughtheabsolutenumberoffar-rightattacksremainslowwhencomparedtootherformsofterrorism.InNorthAmerica,WesternEurope,andOceania,far-rightattackshaveincreasedby250per centsince2014,withdeathsincreasingby709percentoverthesameperiod.Therewere89deathsattributedtofar-rightterroristsin2019,with51ofthoseoccurringintheChristchurchmosqueattacksinNewZealand.Therehavebeenover35far-rightterroristincidentsintheWesteveryyearforthepastfiveyears. Far-rightterrorismtendstobemorelethalthanfar-leftterrorism,butnotaslethalasIslamistterrorismintheWest.Therehavebeen13far-rightterroristattacksthathaveeachkilledmorethantenpeopleoverthepast50years,comparedto24Islamistattacks,andthreefromotherideologies.Far-rightterrorismisalsomorelikelytobecarriedoutbyindividualsunaffiliatedwithaspecificterroristgroup.Nearly60percentoffar-rightattacksfrom1970to2019werecarriedoutbyunaffiliatedindividuals,comparedtoundertenpercentforbothfar-leftandseparatistterroristgroups. Therearesomesignsthatpoliticalviolenceisbecomingmorepublicallyacceptable,asthelevelofpolarisationinsocietycontinuestorise.IntheUS,wherethemajorityoffar-rightterrorismhastakenplace,nearly40percentofbothDemocratandRepublicanpollrespondentsin2020feltthatviolenceforpoliticalendswasatleastpartiallyjustifiable, upfromlessthantenpercentjusttwoandhalfyearsearlier.SocialandpoliticalinstabilityhasalsobeenontheriseintheWest,evenpriortothewidespreaddemonstrationsseenin2020.Nearly70violentdemonstrationswererecordedintheWestin2019,comparedto19in2011. Theriseinfar-rightterrorismcomesatatimewhenPositivePeaceisdeclininginmanyWesterncountries.TheUShadoneofthelargestdeteriorationsinPositivePeace,withitsscoredeterioratingby6.7percentoverthepastdecade. IfthedeteriorationinPositivePeaceintheWestcontinuesuncheckedoverthecomingyears,thebackgroundconditionsaresetforfurthersocialdiscontent,whichmayincreasethelikelihoodforviolenceandterrorism. Thereportalsolooksattheapplicationofsystemsthinkingtoterrorism,usingmainlystatisticaltechniquesand mathematicalmodelstobetterunderstandthedynamics ofterrorismanditssubsequentimpactonsociety.Terroristgroupsflourishwhentheycanincreasetheirinfluence.Themajordriversofinfluencearemediacoverage,recruitmentofsympathisers,andfinances.Allofthesedifferentfacetsneedtobetackledtogethertobreakupterroristorganisations. Therearemanysocio-economicfactorsthatareassociatedwithterrorismthatarecommontoallcountries.However,therearealsonotabledifferencesbetweeneconomicallydevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Somesocio-economicfactorsassociatedwithterrorisminclude: Highlevelsofgroupgrievanceandaweakruleoflawiscorrelatedwithterrorismacrossallcountries. Inthemoreeconomicallydevelopedcountries,socialdisenfranchisementandexclusionplayanimportantroleinterrorism. Inlesseconomicallydevelopedcountries,religiousorethnicruptures,andcorruptionaremorestronglyassociatedwithhighlevelsofterrorism. Asthethreatofterrorismcontinuestochange,policymakersneedtobeawareofnovelapproachestocounter-terrorism.TheEuropeanLeadershipNetworkisdevelopingtheconceptofsocialimpactbondsinrelationtoterrorism,withaparticularfocusonsecuringdangerousmaterialsthatcouldbeusedinsophisticatedterroristattacks,suchasradioactivemedicalwaste.Therearealreadyover100developmentorsocialimpactbondsglobally,buttodatetheyhavenotbeenusedforsecuritypurposes.AnexpertcontributioninthiseditionoftheGTIlooksindetailattheprospectofusingsocialimpactbondsincounter-terrorism. TheCountriesMostImpactedbyTerrorism   🇦🇫1.Afghanistan 🇮🇶 2.Iraq 🇳🇬3.Nigeria 🇸🇾4.Syria 🇸🇴5.Somalia 🇾🇪6.Yemen 🇵🇰 7.Pakistan 🇮🇳8.India 🇨🇩 9.DemocraticRepublic oftheCongo 🇵🇭 10.Philippines DownloadthefullGTI2020reporthere. KeyFindings Section1:Results Deathsfromterrorismfellforthefifthconsecutiveyearin2019to13,826deaths,representinga15percentdecreasefromtheprioryear. TheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA),RussiaandEurasia,SouthAmericaandSouthAsiaregionsallrecordedfallsindeathsfromterrorismofatleast20percent. Althoughterrorismhasfalleninmostregions,ithasbecomemorewidespreadinothers.Sevenofthetencountrieswiththelargestincreaseinterrorismwereinsub-SaharanAfrica. BurkinaFasohadthelargestincreaseinterrorism,wheredeathsincreasedby590percentto593.ThiswasfollowedbySriLankawhereterrorismdeathsincreasedfromonein2018to266in2019. Afghanistanremainsthecountrywiththehighestimpactfromterrorism.However,terrorismdeathsinthecountrydeclinedin2019forthefirsttimeinthreeyears. TheTalibanremainedtheworld’sdeadliestterroristgroupin2019.However,terroristdeathsattributedtothegroupdeclinedby18percentto4,990.WhetherthepeacetalksinAfghanistanhaveasubstantialimpactonterroristactivityremainstobeseen. Section2:GlobalImpactofTerrorism Theglobaleconomicimpactofterrorismin2019amountedtoUS$26.4billion,afallof25percentfrom2018.ThiswasmainlydrivenbyafallinterrorismdeathsintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica. Theeconomicimpactofterrorismhasfalleneachyearforthelastfiveyears.Itisnow77percentlowerthanatitspeakin2014. Afghanistanwasthecountrywiththehighesteconomicimpact,equivalentto16.7percentofitsGrossDomesticProduct(GDP). Nineofthetencountrieswiththehighesteconomicimpactofterrorismsufferfromongoingconflict. Sub-SaharanAfricaandSouthAsiahavethehighest regionaleconomicimpact,atUS$12.5andUS$5.6billion,respectively. NorthAmericahadthelargestregionalpercentageincreaseinitseconomicimpact,increasingby44.9percentfromthepreviousyear,owinglargelytoanincreaseinfar-rightterrorism. Section3:TrendsinTerrorism Deathsfromterrorismarenow59percentlowerthantheirpeakin2014.ThefallindeathshasbeenlargestinIraq,SyriaandNigeria. Theoverallfallindeathsfromterrorismhasalso ledtoareductioninthenumberofcountriesexperiencingdeathsfromterrorism.In2019,63countriesrecordedatleastonedeathfromterrorism,thelowestnumbersince2013. Theimpactofterrorismlessenedinsevenofthenineregionsoftheworldin2019. SouthAsiarecordedthelargestdeterioration,followedbyCentralAmericaandtheCaribbean.However,CentralAmericaandtheCaribbeanremainstheregionwiththelowestimpactofterrorism,apositionithasheldforthepast17years. MENArecordedthelargestregionalimprovementforthesecondconsecutiveyear.DeathsinMENAhavefallenby87percentsince2016,reachingthelowestlevelsince2003. Morerecently,terroristactivityhasbeenconcentratedinSouthAsiaandsub-SaharanAfricawithbothregionshavingrecordedmoreterrorismdeathsthanMENAsince2018. Section4:TheShiftingLandscape AsthelevelofterroristactivitycontinuestofallintheMiddleEastandSouthAsia,newterroristthreatsarebeginningtoemerge.ThemostprominentofthesearethespreadofISILaffiliategroupsinsub-SaharanAfrica,andtheemergenceoffar-rightterrorisminWesternEuropeandNorthAmerica. ISIL’sglobalreachhassteadilyexpandedwithISIL-relatedattacksrecordedacrosssevenregions:Asia-Pacific,Europe,MENA,NorthAmerica,RussiaandEurasia,SouthAsiaandsub-SaharanAfrica. OutsideofIraqandSyria,ISIL-affiliatedgroupsandindividualshaveperpetratedover3,000attacksin48countriessince2013. ThenumberofcountriesrecordinganISIL-relatedattackincreasedfromtwoin2013,to27in2019. IntheWest,ISILdirectedorinspiredatleast78terrorattacksbetween2014and2019,resultingin471fatalities.FrancerecordedthemostISIL-relatedterrorismdeaths,followedbytheUnitedStatesandBelgium.However,therewasonlyoneattackrecordedintheWestin2019. Forty-onepercentoftotalISIL-relatedattacksin2019occurredinsub-SaharanAfrica,highlightingtheshiftinISIL-relatedattacksawayfromtheMiddleEast. Far-rightterrorismhasincreasedsubstantiallyintheWest.Therewasonerecordedfar-rightterroristattackin2010,thishadincreasedto49in2019. Section5:SystemsandTerrorism Therearemanyfactorsthatareassociatedwithincreasedlevelsofterrorism.Highlevelsofgroupgrievanceandweakruleoflawarecorrelatedwithterrorismacrossallcountries. Thesocio-economicfactorslinkedwithterrorisminmoreeconomicallydevelopedcountriesmostlyreflectsocialdisenfranchisementandexclusion. Amongdevelopingnations,terrorismisassociatedwithreligiousorethnicrupturesandcorruption. Socialsystemsarevulnerabletoshocks.Alargescaleterroristattackisashockthatcanchangeasysteminlong-lastingandoftenunexpectedways. The9/11terroristattacksin2001triggeredprofoundchangesintheUSsocialandgovernancesystemsthathaveperseveredforalmosttwodecades. Followingtheseattacks,indicatorsofperceivedhumanrightsprotections,ruleoflaw,mediamonitoringandregulationandjudicialreviewandoversightdeterioratedmarkedly. Influenceoversocietyanditsgovernanceisthemostimportantfactorthatdeterminesthesize,longevity,andsuccessofaterroristgroup.Programsandpoliciesthatreducetheinfluenceofgroupswillhavethemostpowertodisruptterrornetworks. Inordertodisruptrecruitmentbyterroristgroups,nationsneedtoaddressbothrecruitmentmethodsandmotivation. Toaddressthemotivationstojoinaterroristgroup,bothsocialandeconomicinclusionneedtobepromoted. GlobalTerrorismIndex2020ThisisanexcerptfromtheGlobalTerrorismIndex2020,whichisacomprehensivestudyanalysingtheimpactofterrorismfor163countriescovering99.7percentoftheworld’spopulation. Readthereport RELATEDPOSTS GlobalPeaceIndexWorldlesspeacefulascivilunrestandpoliticalinstabilityincreasesduetoCOVID-19 Todaymarksthelaunchofthe2021editionoftheGlobalPeaceIndex. READMORE ConflictTheUkraineConflictToday:ResilienceAfter7YearsofWar Apandemicaddstothecomplexityoflifeinaconflictareas. READMORE RELATEDRESOURCES ResourceJune2021 GlobalPeaceIndex2021 Measuringpeaceinacomplexworld. DOWNLOAD ResourceJune2021 GlobalPeaceIndex2021Briefing Measuringpeaceinacomplexworld. DOWNLOAD Nevermissareport,eventornewsupdate.SubscribetotheVisionOfHumanitymailinglist Emailaddress* Whichlistswouldyouliketosubscribeto?* FutureTrends(Weekly) VOHNewsletter(Weekly) IEP&VOHUpdates(Irregular) Consent*Iaccepttheaboveinformationwillbeusedtocontactme.* GDPRPrivacyPolicyPrivacyPolicy