What Does VUCA Really Mean? - Forbes

For a couple of years, the notion of "VUCA" is gaining popularity as a term to cover the various dimensions of this 'uncontrollable' environment ... BETAThisisaBETAexperience.Youmayopt-outby clickinghereMoreFromForbesNov11,2021,10:17amESTAuthorAndActivistDarnellL.MooreIsCreatingATableForEveryone.Nov11,2021,10:04amESTSearchAbandonmentCostsRetailers.Here’sHowAICanHelp.Nov11,2021,09:52amESTFlightPlan:HowTheAviation&AerospaceSectorCanAddressSustainabilityNov11,2021,09:00amESTCouldThisCouncilmember’sPushForIncreasedIntegrationBeANationalModel?Nov11,2021,07:45amESTFourTipsToCreateAPositiveCandidateExperienceAndAttractTopTalentNov11,2021,07:30amESTWhatDoesTheFutureOfAdvertisingSoundLike?Nov11,2021,07:30amESTWhyIt'sImportantToPracticeSelf-CareDuringThePandemicAndOtherTimesOfDuressNov11,2021,07:30amESTHowHRProsShouldNavigateTheGreatResignationNov11,2021,07:15amESTOut-Of-The-BoxIdeasToCatchYourProspects’AttentionEditStoryDec19,2018,10:21amEST|WhatDoesVUCAReallyMean?JeroenKraaijenbrinkContributorOpinionsexpressedbyForbesContributorsaretheirown.LeadershipStrategyIhelpcompaniesdiscover,formulateandexecutestrategySharetoFacebookSharetoTwitterSharetoLinkedin Kiev,Ukraine-October24,2018:KievviewshowingArsenalnaMetroStation Getty Throughoutthepastdecadeswefindnumeroustermsinthepopularbusinesspressandacademicliteraturethatrefertoanincreasinginabilitytograsptheworldanddealwiththethingshappeningaroundus.Examplesincludeuncertainty,turbulence,rapidchange,dynamism,disruption,complexity,hyper-competition,high-velocitymarketsandflux. Foracoupleofyears,the notionof"VUCA"is gainingpopularity asatermtocoverthevariousdimensionsofthis‘uncontrollable’environment.Invariouspostsandarticles,weread,forexample,abouta"VUCAWorld"andinparticularabout"LeadershipinaVUCAWorld." ButwhatdoesbeingandleadinginaVUCAworldreallymean? Sure, VUCAisanacronym.It standsforVolatile,Uncertain,ComplexandAmbiguous.Andsure,thereareplentyofexplanationsincludingaHarvardBusinessReviewarticlebyNathanBennettandG.JamesLemoineandapageonWikipedia.Butdespitetheseexplanations,somefurtherclarificationcanbehelpful. Therefore,inthis articleandthenextones,IwanttodiveabitdeeperandclarifywhatVUCAmeans,whethertheworldisindeedincreasinglyVUCAandwhattheimplicationsforbusinessare.Letme startwithbrieflydefiningthefourelements: Volatility- Volatilityreferstothespeedofchangeinanindustry,marketortheworldingeneral.Itisassociatedwithfluctuationsindemand,turbulenceandshorttimetomarketsanditiswell-documentedintheliteratureonindustrydynamism.Themorevolatiletheworldis,themoreandfasterthingschange. Uncertainty- Uncertaintyreferstotheextenttowhichwecanconfidentlypredictthefuture.Partofuncertaintyisperceivedandassociatedwithpeople’sinabilitytounderstandwhatisgoingon.Uncertainty,though,isalsoamoreobjectivecharacteristicofanenvironment.Trulyuncertainenvironmentsarethosethatdon’tallowanyprediction,alsonotonastatisticalbasis.Themoreuncertaintheworldis,theharderitistopredict. Complexity- Complexityreferstothenumberoffactorsthatweneedtotakeintoaccount,theirvarietyandtherelationshipsbetweenthem.Themorefactors,thegreatertheirvarietyandthemoretheyareinterconnected,themorecomplexanenvironmentis.Underhighcomplexity,itisimpossibletofullyanalyzetheenvironmentandcometorationalconclusions.Themorecomplextheworldis,theharderitistoanalyze. Ambiguity- Ambiguityreferstoalackofclarityabouthowtointerpretsomething.Asituationisambiguous,forexample,wheninformationisincomplete,contradictingortooinaccuratetodrawclearconclusions.Moregenerallyitreferstofuzzinessandvaguenessinideasandterminology.Themoreambiguoustheworldis,theharderitistointerpret. Inpractice,thefourtermsarerelated.Themorecomplexandvolatileanindustryis,forexample,thehardertopredictandthereforemoreuncertainitwillbe.Yet,allfourrepresentdistinctelementsthatmakeourenvironment-theworld,amarket,anindustry-hardertograspandcontrol. Thedistinctnatureofthesefourelementscanbefurtherclarifiedbyvisualizingthem: TheFourDimensionsofVUCA CopyrightJeroenKraaijenbrink Asillustratedinthepictureabove,inapurelyvolatile(butnotuncertain,complexandambiguous)world,thereisalotoffast,butpredictablechange. Ontheotherhand,inapurelyuncertain(butnotvolatile,complexandambiguous)world,itisjusthardtotellhowthingsdevelop.Andinapurelycomplex(butnotvolatile,uncertainandambiguous)world,thingsarehardtountangleandunderstand.Finally,inapurelyambiguous(butnotvolatile,uncertainandcomplex)world,thingsarejusthardtodiscern.   Followmeon Twitter or LinkedIn. Checkout my website or someofmyotherwork here. JeroenKraaijenbrinkPrintReprints&Permissions