Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - Wikipedia

Uncertainty in the VUCA framework is almost just as it sounds: when the availability or predictability of information in events is unknown. Uncertainty often ... Volatility,uncertainty,complexityandambiguity FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch Conceptinleadershipstudies VUCAisanacronym–firstusedin1987,drawingontheleadershiptheoriesofWarrenBennisandBurtNanus–todescribeortoreflectonthevolatility,uncertainty,complexityandambiguityofgeneralconditionsandsituations.[1][2]TheU.S.ArmyWarCollegeintroducedtheconceptofVUCAtodescribethemorevolatile,uncertain,complexandambiguousmultilateralworldperceivedasresultingfromtheendoftheColdWar.[3]Morefrequentuseanddiscussionoftheterm"VUCA"beganfrom2002andderivesfromthisacronymfrommilitaryeducation.[4][needquotationtoverify]Ithassubsequentlytakenrootinemergingideasinstrategicleadershipthatapplyinawiderangeoforganizations,fromfor-profitcorporations[5][needquotationtoverify]toeducation[6] [7] Contents 1Meaning 2Themes 2.1SocialCategorization 2.1.1Volatility 2.1.2Uncertainty 2.1.3Complexity 2.1.4Ambiguity 3VUCA 4VUCA2.0 5VUCAP 6Seealso 7References Meaning[edit] ThedeepermeaningofeachelementofVUCAservestoenhancethestrategicsignificanceofVUCAforesightandinsightaswellasthebehaviourofgroupsandindividualsinorganizations.[8]Itdiscussessystemicfailures[9]andbehaviouralfailures,[9]whicharecharacteristicoforganisationalfailure. V=Volatility:thenatureanddynamicsofchange,andthenatureandspeedofchangeforcesandchangecatalysts. U=Uncertainty:thelackofpredictability,theprospectsforsurprise,andthesenseofawarenessandunderstandingofissuesandevents. C=Complexity:themultiplexofforces,theconfoundingofissues,nocause-and-effectchainandconfusionthatsurroundsorganization. A=Ambiguity:thehazinessofreality,thepotentialformisreads,andthemixedmeaningsofconditions;cause-and-effectconfusion. Theseelementspresentthecontextinwhichorganizationsviewtheircurrentandfuturestate.Theypresentboundariesforplanningandpolicymanagement.Theycometogetherinwaysthateitherconfounddecisionsorsharpenthecapacitytolookahead,planaheadandmoveahead.VUCAsetsthestageformanagingandleading. TheparticularmeaningandrelevanceofVUCAoftenrelatestohowpeopleviewtheconditionsunderwhichtheymakedecisions,planforward,managerisks,fosterchangeandsolveproblems.Ingeneral,thepremisesofVUCAtendtoshapeanorganization'scapacityto: AnticipatetheIssuesthatShape UnderstandtheConsequencesofIssuesandActions AppreciatetheInterdependenceofVariables PrepareforAlternativeRealitiesandChallenges InterpretandAddressRelevantOpportunities Formostcontemporaryorganizations–business,themilitary,education,governmentandothers–VUCAisapracticalcodeforawarenessandreadiness.BeyondthesimpleacronymisabodyofknowledgethatdealswithlearningmodelsforVUCApreparedness,anticipation,evolutionandintervention.[10] Themes[edit] Failureinitselfmaynotbeacatastrophe,butfailuretolearnfromfailuredefinitelyis.Itisnotenoughtotrainleadersincorecompetencieswithoutidentifyingthekeyfactorsthatinhibittheirusingtheresilienceandadaptabilitythatarevitalinordertodistinguishpotentialleadersfrommediocremanagers.AnticipatingchangeasaresultofVUCAisoneoutcomeofresilientleadership.[9]ThecapacityofindividualsandorganizationstodealwithVUCAcanbemeasuredwithanumberofengagementthemes: KnowledgeManagementandSense-Making PlanningandReadinessConsiderations ProcessManagementandResourceSystems FunctionalResponsivenessandImpactModels RecoverySystemsandForwardPractices Systemicfailures[9] Behaviouralfailures[9] Atsomelevel,thecapacityforVUCAmanagementandleadershiphingesonenterprisevaluesystems,assumptionsandnaturalgoals.A"preparedandresolved"enterprise[5]isengagedwithastrategicagendathatisawareofandempoweredbyVUCAforces. ThecapacityforVUCAleadershipinstrategicandoperatingtermsdependsonawell-developedmindsetforgaugingthetechnical,social,political,marketandeconomicrealitiesoftheenvironmentinwhichpeoplework.WorkingwithdeepersmartsabouttheelementsofVUCAmaybeadriverforsurvivalandsustainabilityinanotherwisecomplicatedworld.[11] Psychometrics[12]whichmeasurefluidintelligencebytrackinginformationprocessingwhenfacedwithunfamiliar,dynamicandvaguedatacanpredictcognitiveperformanceinVUCAenvironments SocialCategorization[edit] Volatility[edit] VolatilityistheVcomponentofVUCA.Thisreferstothedifferentsituationalsocial-categorizationofpeopleduetospecifictraitsorreactionsthatstandoutduringthatparticularsituation.Whenpeoplereact/actbasedonaspecificsituation,thereisapossibilitythatthepubliccategorizesthemintoadifferentgroupthantheywereinaprevioussituation.Thesepeoplemightresponddifferentlytoindividualsituationsduetosocialorenvironmentalcues.Theideathatsituationaloccurrencescausecertainsocialcategorizationisknownasvolatilityandisoneofthemainaspectsoftheself-categorizationtheory.[13] Sociologistsusevolatilitytounderstandbetterhowstereotypesandsocial-categorizationisimpactedbasedonthesituationathandaswellasanyoutsideforcesthatmayleadpeopletoperceiveothersdifferently.Volatilityisthechangingdynamicofsocial-categorizationinasetofenvironmentalsituations.Thedynamiccanchangeduetoanyshiftinasituation,whetheritissocial,technical,biologicaloranythingofthelike.Studieshavebeenconducted,butithasprovendifficulttofindthespecificcomponentthatcausesthechangeinsituationalsocial-categorization.[14] Therearetwoseparatecomponentsthatconnectpeopletosocialidentities.Thefirstsocialcueisnormativefit.Thisdescribesthedegreethatapersonrelatestothestereotypesandnormsthatothersassociatewiththeirspecificidentity.Forexample,whenaHispanicwomaniscleaningthehouse,mostofthetime,peopleconnectgenderstereotypeswiththissituation,whileherethnicityisnotconcerned,butwhenthissamewomaneatsanenchilada,ethnicitystereotypessurfacewhilehergenderisnotconcerned.[13]Thesecondsocialcueiscomparativefit.Thisiswhenaspecificcharacteristicortraitofapersonisprominentincertainsituationswhencomparedtootherpeople.Forexample,asmentionedbyBodenhausenandPeery,whenthereisonewomaninaroomfullofmen.[13]Shesticksoutbecausesheistheonlyoneofhergendercomparedtomanyothersoftheoppositegender.However,allofthemenareclumpedtogetherbecausetheydonothaveanyspecifictraitsthatstandsoutamongtherestofthem.Comparativefitshowsthatpeoplecategorizeothersbasedonthecomparativesocialcontext.Inacertainsituation,specificcharacteristicsaremadeobviousduetothefactthatothersaroundthatindividualdonotpossessthatcharacteristic.However,inothersituations,thischaracteristicmaybethenormandwouldnotbeakeycharacteristicinthecategorizationprocess.[13] Peoplecanalsobelesscriticizingofthesamepersonduringdifferentsituations.Forexample,whenlookingatanAfricanAmericanmanonthestreetofalow-incomeneighborhoodandwhenlookingatthesamemaninsideaschoolofahigh-incomeneighborhood,peoplewillbelessjudgmentalwhenseeinghimintheschool.Nothingelsehaschangedaboutthisman,otherthanhislocation.[13]Whenindividualsarespottedincertainsocialcontexts,thebasic-levelcategoriesareforgottenandthemorepartialcategoriesarebroughttolight.Thisreallyhelpstodescribetheproblemsofsituationalsocial-categorizationandhowstereotypescanshifttheperspectivesofthosearoundanindividual.[13] Uncertainty[edit] UncertaintyintheVUCAframeworkisalmostjustasitsounds:whentheavailabilityorpredictabilityofinformationineventsisunknown.Uncertaintyoftenoccursinvolatileenvironmentsthatarecomplexinstructureinvolvingunanticipatedinteractionsthataresignificantinuncertainty.Uncertaintymayoccurintheintentiontoimplycausationorcorrelationbetweentheeventsofasocialperceiverandatarget.Situationswherethereiseitheralackofinformationtoprovewhyaperceptionisinoccurrenceorinformationalavailabilitybutlackofcausationarewhereuncertaintyissalient.[13] Theuncertaintycomponentoftheframeworkservesasagreyareaandiscompensatedbytheuseofsocialcategorizationand/orstereotypes.Socialcategorizationcanbedescribedasacollectionofpeoplethathavenointeractionbuttendtosharesimilarcharacteristicswithoneanother.Peoplehaveatendencytoengageinsocialcategorization,especiallywhenthereisalackofinformationsurroundingtheevent.Literaturesuggeststhattherearedefaultcategoriesthattendtobeassumedintheabsenceofanycleardatawhenreferringtosomeone'sgenderorraceintheessenceofadiscussion.[13] Oftenindividualsassociatetheuseofgeneralreferences(e.g.people,they,them,agroup)withthemalegender,meaningpeople=male.Thisinstanceoftenoccurswhenthereisnotenoughinformationtoclearlydistinguishsomeone'sgender.Forexample,whendiscussingawrittenpieceofinformationmostpeoplewillassumetheauthorisamale.Ifanauthor'snameisnotavailable(lackofinformation)itisdifficulttodeterminethegenderoftheauthorthroughthecontextofwhateverwaswritten.Peoplewillautomaticallylabeltheauthorasamalewithouthavinganypriorbasisofgender,placingtheauthorinasocialcategory.Thissocialcategorizationhappensinthisexample,butpeoplewillalsoassumesomeoneisamaleifthegenderisnotknowninmanyothersituationsaswell.[13] Socialcategorizationoccursintherealmofnotonlygenderbutalsorace.Defaultassumptionscanbemade,likeingender,totheraceofanindividualoragroupofpeoplebasedonpriorknownstereotypes.Forexample,race-occupationcombinationssuchasabasketballplayeroragolfplayerwillreceiveraceassumptions.Withoutanyinformationoftheindividual'srace,abasketballplayerwillbeassumedtobeblackandagolfplayerwillbeassumedtobewhite.Thisisbaseduponstereotypesbecauseofthemajorityofraceineachsporttendtobedominatedbyasinglerace,butinreality,thereareotherraceswithineachsport.[13] Complexity[edit] Complexityisthe“C”componentofVUCA,thatreferstotheinterconnectivityandinterdependenceofmultiplecomponentsinasystem.Whenconductingresearch,complexityisacomponentthatscholarshavetokeepinmind.Theresultsofadeliberatelycontrolledenvironmentareunexpectedbecauseofthenon-linearinteractionandinterdependencieswithindifferentgroupsandcategories.[14] Inasociologicalaspect,theVUCAframeworkisutilizedinresearchtounderstandsocialperceptionintherealworldandhowthatplaysintosocialcategorizationaswellasstereotypes.GalenVBodenhausenandDestinyPeery'sarticleSocialCategorizationandStereotypingInvivo:TheVUCAChallenge,focusedonresearchinghowsocialcategoriesimpactedtheprocessofsocialcognitionandperception.[13]Thestrategyusedtoconducttheresearchistomanipulateorisolateasingleidentityofatargetwhilekeepingallotheridentitiesconstant.Thismethodcreatesclearresultsofhowaspecificidentityinasocialcategorycanchangeone'sperceptionofotheridentities,thuscreatingstereotypes.[13] Thereareproblemswithcategorizinganindividual'ssocialidentityduetothecomplexityofanindividual'sbackground.Thisresearchfailstoaddressthecomplexityofthereal-worldandtheresultsfromthishighlightedanevengreatpictureaboutsocialcategorizationandstereotyping.[13]Complexityaddsmanylayersofdifferentcomponentstoanindividual'sidentityandcreateschallengesforsociologiststryingtoexaminesocialcategories.[14]Intherealworld,peoplearefarmorecomplexcomparedtoamodifiedsocialenvironment.Individualsidentifywithmorethanonesocialcategory,whichopensthedoortoadeeperdiscoveryaboutstereotyping.ResultsfromresearchconductedbyBodenhausenrevealsthattherearecertainidentitiesthataremoredominantthanothers.[13]Perceiverswhorecognizethesespecificidentitieslatchontoitandassociatetheirpreconceivednotionofsuchidentityandmakeinitialassumptionsabouttheindividualsandhencestereotypesarecreated. Ontheotherhand,perceiverswhosharesomeoftheidentitieswiththetargetbecomemoreopen-minded.Theyalsotakeintoconsiderationmorethanonesocialidentityatthesametimeandthisisalsoknownascross-categorizationeffects.[15]Somesocialcategoriesareembeddedinalargercategoricalstructure,whichmakesthatsubcategoryevenmorecrucialandoutstandingtoperceivers.Researchoncross-categorizationrevealsthatdifferenttypesofcategoriescanbeactivatedinthemindofthesocialperceiver,whichcausesbothpositiveandnegativeeffects.Apositiveoutcomeisthatperceiversaremoreopen-mindeddespiteothersocialstereotypes.Theyhavemoremotivationtothinkdeeplyaboutthetargetandseepastthemostdominantsocialcategory.Bodenhausenalsoacknowledgesthatcross-categorizationeffectsleadtosocialinvisibility.[13]Sometypesofcross-overidentitiesmaylessenthenoticeabilityofotheridentities,whichmaycausetargetstobesubjectedto“intersectionalinvisibility,”[16]whereneithersocialidentitieshaveadistinctcomponentandareoverlooked. Ambiguity[edit] Ambiguityisthe“A”componentofVUCA.Thisreferstowhenthegeneralmeaningofsomethingisunclearevenwhenanappropriateamountofinformationisprovided.Manygetconfusedaboutthemeaningofambiguity.Itissimilartotheideaofuncertaintybuttheyhavedifferentfactors.Uncertaintyiswhenrelevantinformationisunavailableandunknown,andambiguitywhererelevantinformationisavailablebuttheoverallmeaningisstillunknown.Bothuncertaintyandambiguityexistinourculturetoday.Sociologistsuseambiguitytodeterminehowandwhyananswerhasbeendeveloped.Sociologistsfocusondetailssuchasiftherewasenoughinformationpresent,anddidthesubjecthavethefullamountofknowledgenecessarytomakeadecision.andwhydidhe/shecometotheirspecificanswer.[13] Ambiguityleadstopeopleassumingananswer,andmanytimesthisleadsassumingonesrace,gender,andcanevenleadtoclassstereotypes.Ifapersonhassomeinformationbutstilldoesn'thavetheoverallanswer,thepersonstartstoassumehis/herownanswerbasedontherelevantinformationhe/shealreadypossesses.Forexample,asmentionedbyBodenhausenwemayoccasionallyencounterpeoplewhoaresufficientlyandrogynoustomakeitdifficulttoascertaintheirgender,andatleastonestudysuggeststhatwithbriefexposure,androgynousindividualscansometimesbemiscategorizedonthebasisofgender-atypicalfeatures(verylonghair,foraman,orveryshorthair,forawoman.Overall,ambiguityleadstothecategorizationofmany.Forexample,itmayleadtoassumingone'ssexualorientation.Unlessapersonisopenabouttheirownsexualorientation,peoplewillautomaticallyassumethattheyareheterosexual.Butifamanpossessesfemininequalitiesorafemalepossessesmasculinequalitiesthentheymightbeportrayedaseithergayorlesbian.Ambiguityleadstothecategorizationofpeoplewithoutfurtherimportantdetailsthatcouldleadtountrueconclusions.[13] Sociologistsbelievethatambiguitycanleadtoracestereotypesanddiscrimination.InastudydoneinSouthAfricabythreesociologists,theyhadwhitecitizensofSouthAfricalookatpicturesofraciallymixedfacesandtheyhadtodecidewhetherthesefaceswereEuropeanorAfrican.Becausethesetestsubjectswereallwhitetheyhadahardproblemdefiningthesemixed-racefacesasEuropeananddeemedthemalltobeAfrican.Thereasontheydidthisisbecauseofambiguity.Theinformationthatwasavailablewastheskintoneofthepeopleinthepicturesandthefacialqualitiestheypossessed,withthisinformationthetestsubjectshadallofthatinformationavailablebutstilldidnotknowtheanswerforsure.Theyoverallassumedbecausetheydidnotlookexactlylikethem,thentheycouldnotbeEuropean.[13] VUCA[edit] LeventIsikligoz(academic)offeredThe"C"ofVUCAtobechangedfromComplexitytoChaoswhichismoresuitableaccordingtoourerabutthisisstilldiscussedinsociologysociety VUCA2.0[edit] BillGeorge,aprofessorofmanagementpracticeatHarvardBusinessSchool,arguesthatVUCAcallsforaleadershipresponsewhichhecallsVUCA2.0:Vision,Understanding,CourageandAdaptability.[17] VUCAP[edit] Dr.AliAslanGümüsayaddsparadoxtotheacronymcallingitVUCA+paradoxandVUCAP.[18] Seealso[edit] Antifragile Cynefinframework Fear,uncertainty,anddoubt(FUD) GlobalSimplicityIndex Goldilocksprocess Innovationbutterfly References[edit] ^U.S.ArmyHeritageandEducationCenter(February16,2018)."WhofirstoriginatedthetermVUCA(Volatility,Uncertainty,ComplexityandAmbiguity)?".USAHECAskUsaQuestion.TheUnitedStatesArmyWarCollege.RetrievedJuly10,2018. ^Bennis,Warren;Nanus,Burt(1985).Leaders:StrategiesforTakingCharge. ^"WhofirstoriginatedthetermVUCA(Volatility,Uncertainty,ComplexityandAmbiguity)?-USAHECAskUsaQuestion".usawc.libanswers.com.Retrieved2021-07-29. ^Stiehm,JudithHicks;NicholasW.Townsend(2002).TheU.S.ArmyWarCollege:MilitaryEducationinaDemocracy.TempleUniversityPress.p. 6.ISBN 978-1-56639-960-9. ^abWolf,Daniel(2007).PreparedandResolved:TheStrategicAgendaforGrowth,PerformanceandChange.dsbPublishing.p. 115.ISBN 978-0-9791300-0-7. ^ "FingertipKnowledge"(PDF).ConvergeMagazine:34.June2007.Archivedfromtheoriginal(PDF)on2012-02-27.Retrieved2018-06-01. ^ Rouvrais,Siegfried;GaultierLeBris,Sophie;Stewart,Matthew(July2018)."EngineeringStudentsReadyforaVUCAWorld?ADesignbasedResearchonDecisionship".Proceedingsofthe14thInternationalCDIOConference,KIT,Kanazawa,Japan:872–881.Archivedfromtheoriginalon2018-08-28.Retrieved2019-04-25.AltURL ^Johansen,Bob(2007).GetThereEarly:SensingtheFuturetoCompeteinthePresent.SanFrancisco,CA:Berrett-KoehlerPublishers,Inc.pp. 51–53.ISBN 978-1-57675-440-5. ^abcdeSuhaylAbidi,andManojJoshi(2015).TheVUCACOMPANY.Mumbai,India:JaicoPublishingHouse.ISBN 978-81-8495-662-7. ^Satish,UshaandSiegfriedStreufert(June2006)."StrategicManagementSimulationstoPrepareforVUCADTerrorism".JournalofHomelandSecurity.Archivedfromtheoriginalon2011-06-08.Retrieved2008-10-29. ^Johansen,Bob(2007).GetThereEarly:SensingtheFuturetoCompeteinthePresent.SanFrancisco,CA:Berrett-KoehlerPublishers,Inc.p. 68.ISBN 978-1-57675-440-5. ^"Whatispsychometrics?|PsychometricSociety".www.psychometricsociety.org.Retrieved2017-07-06. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrBodenhausen,GalenV.;Peery,Destiny(2009-03-01)."SocialCategorizationandStereotypingInvivo:TheVUCAChallenge".SocialandPersonalityPsychologyCompass.3(2):133–151.doi:10.1111/j.1751-9004.2009.00167.x.ISSN 1751-9004. ^abcSchick,Axel;Hobson,PeterR.;Ibisch,PierreL.(2017-04-01)."ConservationandsustainabledevelopmentinaVUCAworld:theneedforasystemicandecosystem‐basedapproach".EcosystemHealthandSustainability.3(4):e01267.doi:10.1002/ehs2.1267.ISSN 2332-8878. ^Vescio,TheresaK;Judd,CharlesM;Kwan,VirginiaS.Y(2004)."Thecrossed-categorizationhypothesis:Evidenceofreductionsinthestrengthofcategorization,butnotintergroupbias".JournalofExperimentalSocialPsychology.40(4):478–496.doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2003.09.005. ^Purdie-Vaughns,Valerie;Eibach,RichardP.(2008-09-01)."IntersectionalInvisibility:TheDistinctiveAdvantagesandDisadvantagesofMultipleSubordinate-GroupIdentities".SexRoles.59(5–6):377–391.doi:10.1007/s11199-008-9424-4.ISSN 0360-0025. ^George,B.,VUCA2.0:AStrategyforSteadyLeadershipinanUnsteadyWorld,ForbesMagazine,published17February2017,accessed3September2019 ^"Leadingthroughvucap|AliAslanGümüsay".Retrieved2021-07-29. 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